Experimental Storm Surge Models

<prev	Experimental Storm Surge Models
home
next>

Wetland brush in the Atchafalaya Delta (HPHC 2004)	Low lying coastal Louisiana is very susceptible to storm surge flooding during tropical cyclone passages. This situation gets worse with time as the coastal wetlands are lost due to natural subsidence and mis-management by man. For every mile of healthy marshland and barrier island lost, the ability of the Louisina coast to protect us from hurricane winds and storm surge is dramatically reduced.
New Orleans is extremely vulnerable to hurricane storm surge due to near or below sea level elevations in many areas, a weakened hurricane protection system, and its Gulf Coast location north of the majority of the wetland loss. Very warm gulf waters in the summer, combined with gradual sea level rise and decades more of anticipated increased hurricane activity set the stage for major flooding in the city in the future, until large-scale protection systems, restoration projects and other initiatives are able to adequately address the threat.	A view of the Mississippi River from mid city New Orleans, behind St. Louis Cathedral (HPHC 2003)
The ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) Finite Element Hydrodynamic Model for Coastal Oceans, Inlets, Rivers and Floodplains is a storm surge prediction tool that has been in development for many years, with a focus on modeling Gulf Coast, and particularly Southern Louisiana, storm surges with increasing resolution and accuracy. Use of ADCIRC as an expirimental product began in 2002 at the HPHC and the model has since been utilized in support of emergency planning through to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. View the ADCIRC animation of Hurricane Katrina surge flooding (hindcast)	ADCIRC Experimental Storm Surge hindcast for Hurricane Katrina (HPHC 2005). Model accuracy (how close the ADCIRC prediction came to actual flooding) was within RMSE +/- 15% which is quite close.
WATCH A STORM SURGE TIMELINE OF FLOODING (INTERACTIVE GRAPHIC) FOR HURRICANE KATRINA FROM "FLASH FLOOD" BY THE NEW ORLEANS TIMES-PICAYUNE
Due to advances in remote sensing and Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) data, vulnerable sections of the Louisiana coast such as the New Orleans study area are now being modeled at very high resolution, making storm surge modeling more precise.

LIDAR graphic (CAS HamptonU)	LSU's SuperMike	Working closely with the LSU Center for Computation and Technology (CCT), where continual advances in supercomputing are taking place, experimental ADCIRC storm surge models are able to be run faster and more efficiently than ever before.
Go to the Experimental Flood Prediction Web Page

Wetland brush in the Atchafalaya Delta (HPHC 2004)

Low lying coastal Louisiana is very susceptible to storm surge flooding during tropical cyclone passages. This situation gets worse with time as the coastal wetlands are lost due to natural subsidence and mis-management by man.

For every mile of healthy marshland and barrier island lost, the ability of the Louisina coast to protect us from hurricane winds and storm surge is dramatically reduced.

New Orleans is extremely vulnerable to hurricane storm surge due to near or below sea level elevations in many areas, a weakened hurricane protection system, and its Gulf Coast location north of the majority of the wetland loss.

Very warm gulf waters in the summer, combined with gradual sea level rise and decades more of anticipated increased hurricane activity set the stage for major flooding in the city in the future, until large-scale protection systems, restoration projects and other initiatives are able to adequately address the threat.

A view of the Mississippi River from mid city New Orleans, behind St. Louis Cathedral (HPHC 2003)

The ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) Finite Element Hydrodynamic Model for Coastal Oceans, Inlets, Rivers and Floodplains is a storm surge prediction tool that has been in development for many years, with a focus on modeling Gulf Coast, and particularly Southern Louisiana, storm surges with increasing resolution and accuracy. Use of ADCIRC as an expirimental product began in 2002 at the HPHC and the model has since been utilized in support of emergency planning through to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005.

View the ADCIRC animation of Hurricane Katrina surge flooding (hindcast)

ADCIRC Experimental Storm Surge hindcast for Hurricane Katrina (HPHC 2005). Model accuracy (how close the ADCIRC prediction came to actual flooding) was within RMSE +/- 15% which is quite close.

WATCH A STORM SURGE TIMELINE OF FLOODING (INTERACTIVE GRAPHIC) FOR HURRICANE KATRINA FROM "FLASH FLOOD" BY THE NEW ORLEANS TIMES-PICAYUNE

Due to advances in remote sensing and Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) data, vulnerable sections of the Louisiana coast such as the New Orleans study area are now being modeled at very high resolution, making storm surge modeling more precise.

LIDAR graphic (CAS HamptonU)

LSU's SuperMike

Working closely with the LSU Center for Computation and Technology (CCT), where continual advances in supercomputing are taking place, experimental ADCIRC storm surge models are able to be run faster and more efficiently than ever before.

Go to the Experimental Flood Prediction
Web Page